A generic model errs in both directions here
High elevation generally means stronger irradiance for a given amount of clear sky, and Wyoming has a good deal of clear sky. A model built on national averages may understate that.
Cold weather improves panel efficiency, since modules produce more at low temperature than at high. A generic derate assumption designed for a warm climate will understate output here too.
Against that, winter days are short at this latitude and snow cover produces nothing until it clears, which a model without a snow allowance will overstate.
So the errors do not all run one way, and a model that has thought about none of them could land anywhere. Ask which of the three it actually accounted for.
The questions that settle it
Ask what data source produced the estimate and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address rather than a regional or national average.
Ask what module temperature and temperature coefficient it applied, and whether the cold-climate benefit is reflected or a standard warm-climate derate was used.
Ask what snow allowance was applied and how it was derived, and what tilt is recommended, since a steeper tilt sheds snow and shifts output toward the shoulder seasons.
Ask what annual degradation was applied. A model holding production flat across a fourteen year payback and beyond overstates the later years.
Then the value side, which is simpler
Ask which energy rate the projection used and check it against your bill. Under the Rocky Mountain Power January 2026 Schedule 2 tariff the flat energy rate is 12.175 cents per kWh.
Ask that the basic charge of $24.24 per month be left untouched, since a solar system reduces energy consumption and not fixed charges.
Ask how the model treated generation your household does not consume, since that depends on your utility credit terms under the statutory net metering requirement.
Ask to see the projection at zero rate escalation, since with an empty incentive column the escalator is the main lever left to improve a headline figure.
What the projection actually rests on
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in Gillette receives no federal tax credit, and Wyoming has no state solar tax credit.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists is net metering to 25 kW under your utility terms, the energy rate on your tariff, and a fixed basic charge that does not move.
Ask for a production estimate that accounts for elevation, cold-weather performance and snow, with the value side modelled as avoided kilowatt hours at the energy rate.