What ended, in context
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. A cash or loan purchase now receives no federal tax credit.
Section 48E, the commercial credit, survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements. The provider claims it, and whether any of the value reaches you depends on the rate offered.
In states such as New Hampshire, Tennessee and Alabama that expiry left essentially nothing behind. Vermont is different because its compensation arrangement is a state and utility construct rather than a federal one.
So the honest framing is that the stack got thinner rather than collapsing, and the diligence question shifts from finding incentives to checking the ones that remain.
What remains
Net metering compensation under Rule 5.100, built from a blended residential rate that the Department recommended at $0.2071 per kWh statewide in the 2026 biennial update, modified by the REC and siting adjustors.
That base rate is well above the national average electricity price, which is what makes Vermont solar work despite a northern climate and an installed cost around $3.10 per watt.
The choice over your Renewable Energy Credits, priced at 3 cents per kWh, which is a decision rather than a rate handed to you.
And the electricity you stop buying, which is the largest term and the one that does not depend on any programme staying open.
Where the diligence belongs now
On the production estimate. Ask for the annual figure in kilowatt hours with the data source named, location-specific irradiance for your address, a stated snow allowance, a shading analysis accounting for tree growth, and annual degradation.
On the compensation components. Ask for the blended residential rate with the utility and tariff date named, the REC treatment, and the siting category and adjustor, each stated separately.
On the review cycle. Ask whether your terms are fixed on enrolment or whether subsequent biennial updates apply to you, and get that from the utility or the Commission.
And on the escalation assumption, which with the federal credit gone is the main remaining lever a quote can pull to improve the headline. Ask to see the projection at zero escalation.
What belongs in a Vermont projection
Strike the federal residential credit from any quote showing it, since Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025.
Rebuild from net metering compensation under Rule 5.100, with the blended residential rate, REC adjustor and siting adjustor each stated and the tariff date named.
Add the electricity you stop buying, from a production estimate that accounts for shading, snow and degradation.
Ask for that version in writing with each line named. In a state where the mechanics are public and calculable, a quote that cannot show its working is a quote you cannot check.