The gap a battery closes
Under Schedule 137 Net Billing, generation beyond your instantaneous demand is exported and earns the export credit rate, approximately 4.855 cents per kWh in summer and 4.033 in winter as of March 1, 2026.
Electricity you consume instead of exporting displaces the retail rate, around 12 to 13 cents. A battery moves kilowatt hours from the first category to the second.
That gap is the arbitrage, and it does not exist under net metering, where an exported and a consumed kilowatt hour are worth the same. It is why national guidance treating storage as purely a resilience purchase undersells the Utah case.
It is also quantifiable rather than a matter of opinion. The value is the number of kilowatt hours the battery can move each day, times the gap, times the number of days a year it can do it. Ask for it as a calculation.
Sizing storage for arbitrage rather than for backup
A battery sized for arbitrage and one sized for backup are different products. Arbitrage sizing asks how much surplus your system produces on a typical day and how much evening load you have to absorb it.
A battery larger than your daily surplus spends part of its capacity idle, earning nothing while still costing what it cost. Bigger is not automatically better.
Ask for the hourly profile: expected generation, expected household consumption and the resulting surplus, on a typical summer day and a typical winter day. The right size falls out of that picture.
Ask what round-trip efficiency the model assumed. A battery does not return everything put into it, and a projection ignoring losses overstates the arbitrage.
One caution specific to Utah
The gap a battery monetises is not fixed. The export credit is recalculated every March and the revised rate applies to existing customers, and it has been falling across successive recalculations.
A falling export credit widens the gap, which makes the battery arbitrage worth more rather than less. That is an unusual case where the uncertainty runs in your favour.
The retail side matters too. If retail rates rise while the export credit falls, the gap widens from both ends, and a battery captures more of it.
Ask what the projection assumed on both sides. A model holding the export credit flat and the retail rate flat is making two assumptions that history does not support, and in this case they partly cancel.
Rebuilding the estimate from current figures
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase receives no federal tax credit on the panels or the battery. The Utah residential solar tax credit reached zero for systems installed from 2024 onward.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists is the arbitrage the tariff creates: retail value against export credit, on a gap that has been widening as export credits fall.
Ask for the projection with and without storage, with the daily surplus profile behind it, round-trip losses included and the backup reserve stated. Those four things turn a battery into a calculation.