Separating grounded numbers from assumed ones
The installed cost is grounded. It is a price you are being quoted and it is checkable against other quotes.
The production estimate is a model output, but a well-specified one can be interrogated: data source, location-specific irradiance, shading, snow allowance, degradation.
Your retail rate is grounded, because it is on your bill. Ask which figure the projection used and check it.
The export arrangement, in South Dakota, may be entirely assumed. Without a statutory requirement there is no default, so ask what the projection assumed and where that came from.
The questions that expose an assumption
Ask directly: what does the projection assume happens to electricity my household does not use as it is generated, and what is the source for that assumption.
A good answer names your utility policy document. A weaker answer describes what is typical, which in a state with no requirement is not evidence about your address.
Ask what proportion of the projected savings depends on that assumption. If it is large, the quote is resting on something unverified.
Ask for the projection rebuilt with export value at zero. That is the worst case, and in South Dakota it is not an unreasonable case to look at.
And the production side, which is also northern
Ask for the annual production estimate in kilowatt hours per year with the data source named and location-specific irradiance for your address.
Ask what snow allowance the model applied and how it was derived, since eastern South Dakota winters bring real snow cover and an array under snow produces nothing.
Ask about tilt, since a steeper tilt sheds snow more readily and shifts output toward the shoulder seasons.
Ask what annual degradation was applied, since a model holding production flat across a fourteen year payback and beyond overstates the later years.
What the arithmetic rests on here
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in Watertown receives no federal tax credit, and South Dakota has no state solar tax credit.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists with certainty is the retail value of self-consumed generation and a production estimate you have interrogated.
Ask for the projection with export value shown separately and a version with it set to zero, so you can see the case that does not depend on an unverified assumption.