What the incentive column actually holds
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. A cash or loan purchase receives nothing at federal level.
The Idaho Residential Alternative Energy Tax Deduction remains, at 40 percent of system cost in year one and 20 percent in each of the next three, capped at $5,000 a year and $20,000 total.
But it is a deduction rather than a credit, so its cash value is the deducted amount multiplied by your marginal Idaho income tax rate. That is a fraction of the headline figure and it depends on your own tax position.
So the incentive column is short, and the return comes from production multiplied by value. Both are assumptions in a model rather than published facts.
Interrogating the production estimate
Ask for the annual figure in kilowatt hours per year rather than only as a dollar saving, so production and value assumptions can be checked separately.
Ask what data source produced it and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address rather than a statewide average.
Ask what module temperature the estimate assumed and what temperature coefficient it applied, since southern Idaho summers are hot and panels lose efficiency as they heat.
Ask what soiling losses and annual degradation it applied. A model holding production flat across twenty-five years overstates the back half of the projection.
And the timing of that production
Under Idaho Power net billing, what each kilowatt hour is worth depends on whether you consume it, and if you export it, on the season and time of day.
Recent rates have run around 14.0598 cents per kWh for summer on-peak exports, 1.7682 cents for summer off-peak and 0.9540 cents outside summer, so timing is not a refinement but a primary driver.
Ask for the export volume broken out by season and period against the applicable rate, and for the self-consumption portion identified separately as the part that is insulated.
A model that applies a single annual average export rate is not modelling this tariff, and its total will be wrong in a direction that depends entirely on your household pattern.
Rebuilding the estimate from what is confirmed
Strike the federal residential credit from any quote showing it, since Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025.
Restate the Idaho incentive as a deduction with the four-year schedule and the $5,000 annual and $20,000 total caps, valued at your marginal rate rather than at face, and confirm the treatment with a tax professional.
Rebuild from retail-rate offsetting for self-consumed generation and season and time-varying export credits for the rest, with volumes broken out by period.
Ask for that version in writing, with production in kilowatt hours including temperature derating, soiling and degradation.