Cloud cover is the dominant variable
Ketchikan receives extremely high rainfall and correspondingly heavy cloud cover for much of the year. Solar arrays produce under diffuse light, but far less than under direct sun.
That means latitude and panel specification tell you much less about likely output here than they would in a drier climate.
A production model built on regional or state-level irradiance data may substantially overstate a Ketchikan roof, because the local conditions are more extreme than the regional average.
Ask what data source the estimate used, whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address, and what specifically it assumed about cloud cover.
Compounded by the high-latitude winter
On top of the cloud, winter days at this latitude are short and the sun is low, so the hours of usable light are limited even before overcast is considered.
The two compound rather than offsetting: the darkest months are also frequently the wettest, so winter output is very low.
Ask for the production estimate month by month rather than as an annual figure. An annual total averages a productive summer against a near-zero winter and describes neither.
Ask what the model assumed about snow as well as rain, since even a mild coastal winter can put snow on an array for periods.
What that means for the decision
It means the production estimate deserves more scrutiny here than anywhere else covered on this site, because it is both the largest input and the one most likely to be wrong.
It also means a quote that arrives at a comfortable payback should be interrogated rather than welcomed. Ask what irradiance figure produced it and where that figure came from.
Alaska has no statewide net metering mandate, so ask your utility separately what it does with exported generation, in writing.
And with installed costs around $4.50 per watt statewide, there is little margin to absorb an optimistic production figure. Ask for the projection at a lower output assumption as well.
Costing it out when your utility sets the terms
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in Ketchikan receives no federal tax credit, and Alaska has no state solar credit.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists is whatever your utility offers for customer generation, in writing, plus the retail value of electricity you consume as it is generated.
Ask for a location-specific production estimate month by month with the cloud assumption stated, and for the projection at a lower output assumption alongside it.