Terrain makes the estimate a local question
Solar resource varies with more than latitude. Surrounding terrain shades low sun angles, orientation is often dictated by how a house sits on a slope, and tree cover in the hills of east Tennessee is substantial.
That means two homes in the same postcode can have meaningfully different production, and a model built on a regional or statewide irradiance figure will not distinguish between them.
Ask what data source the annual production estimate used and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address. Ask for the figure in kilowatt hours per year rather than only as a dollar saving.
Ask what shading analysis was performed, whether it accounted for terrain as well as trees, and what it assumed about canopy growth across the twenty-five year life of the system.
Why an overstatement costs more in Tennessee
In a state with a thick incentive stack and a retail-rate net metering tariff, an optimistic production estimate is painful but partly cushioned. Tennessee has neither cushion.
There is no state solar tax credit, the federal residential credit ended for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, retail power is cheap at around 13 cents per kWh, and exports earn only TVA avoided cost.
So the production estimate flows almost directly into the result. An overstatement of fifteen percent is not absorbed by anything; it simply becomes fifteen percent less return.
That is the argument for spending your diligence here rather than on negotiating price per watt. The cheapest quote built on an inflated estimate is not the cheapest project.
The other half of the number
Production is one input; what each kilowatt hour is worth is the other. Under Dispersed Power Production, exports are bought at TVA avoided cost while self-consumed electricity displaces your full retail rate.
Your retail rate comes from your local power company, which adds its own distribution charges to the TVA wholesale rate. Actual rates run a cent or more either side of the state average, so check a recent bill rather than accepting a generic figure.
Ask what self-consumption share the model assumed. That assumption determines how much of your production earns the retail rate rather than avoided cost, and it is the single largest lever in the savings figure.
And ask for a smaller system modelled alongside the proposal. In Tennessee a design covering 70 to 80 percent of annual consumption frequently returns better than one covering 100 percent.
Costing it out on TVA terms
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in Johnson City receives no federal tax credit, and Tennessee has no state solar tax credit.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists is retail value on self-consumed generation, avoided cost on exports under Dispersed Power Production, and an interconnection agreement with your local power company.
Ask for the projection built on a location-specific production estimate with terrain and canopy accounted for, your own rate from a recent bill, fixed charges included, and the self-consumption share stated on the page.