Heat cuts output when production peaks
Solar panels lose efficiency as module temperature rises. That is a property of the technology rather than a defect, and every manufacturer publishes a temperature coefficient for it.
An Oklahoma summer produces exactly the conditions where that matters: strong irradiance and very high ambient temperatures, so modules run far above the standard test conditions their rated output assumes.
A model that applies irradiance without a temperature correction will therefore overstate summer output, which is when most of your annual generation happens.
Ask what module temperature the estimate assumed and what temperature coefficient it applied. An installer working Oklahoma seriously will answer that without hesitating.
The rest of the estimate worth checking
Ask for the annual figure in kilowatt hours per year rather than only as a dollar saving, so the production assumption and the rate assumption can be checked separately.
Ask what data source produced it and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address rather than a regional average.
Ask what shading analysis was done and what it assumed about tree growth over the system life, and what soiling losses it applied.
Ask what annual degradation it used. Panels lose a small amount of output each year, and a model holding production flat across twenty-five years overstates the back half of the projection.
And the rate on the other side
Ask which retail rate the projection used and check it against a recent bill. Oklahoma averages around 13.4 cents per kWh, but your own rate is the one that matters.
Ask whether fixed monthly charges were included. They do not fall when your consumption does, so a model treating savings as a percentage of your current bill overstates the result.
Ask how the model treated surplus. Generation beyond your consumption earns avoided cost, in the region of 3 to 5 cents per kWh, not the retail rate, and the two should appear as separate lines.
Ask what escalation the projection applied and to see it at zero. With no incentives left, the escalator is the only other lever a quote can pull to make the numbers look better.
Building the number without the federal credit
Strike the federal residential credit from any quote showing it, and do not expect a state credit in its place, because Oklahoma has none.
Rebuild from retail-rate offsetting within the billing period, avoided cost for surplus, and the electricity you stop buying at your actual rate.
Ask your county assessor how residential solar is treated for property assessment at your address, since that is administered locally.
Then ask for the projection in writing, with production in kilowatt hours including temperature derating, the rate from your own bill, fixed charges included and surplus shown separately.