Nothing at tax level to absorb an error
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. A cash or loan purchase now receives no federal tax credit.
Kentucky has no state income tax credit for residential solar, so nothing at state level replaced it.
Section 48E, the commercial credit, survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements. The provider claims it and whether any value reaches you depends on the rate you are offered.
So for a cash purchase the incentive column is empty, and the entire return comes from production multiplied by rate. Neither term has anything else backing it up.
Interrogating the production estimate
Ask for the annual figure in kilowatt hours per year rather than only as a dollar saving, so the production assumption and the rate assumption can be checked separately.
Ask what data source produced it and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address rather than a regional average.
Ask what shading analysis was done and what it assumed about tree growth over the system life. Central Kentucky lots are frequently wooded and a model built on today canopy will overstate output in ten years.
Ask what annual degradation it applied. Panels lose a small amount of output each year, and a model holding production flat across twenty-five years overstates the back half of the projection.
And the rate on the other side of it
Ask which retail rate the projection used and check it against a recent bill. Kentucky averages around 15 cents per kWh, but your own rate is the one that matters.
Ask whether fixed monthly charges were included. They do not fall when your consumption does, so a model treating savings as a percentage of your current bill will overstate the result.
Ask what escalation rate the projection applied over its term, and ask to see it at zero. A compounding escalator over twenty-five years can carry most of the headline savings on its own.
And ask the installer to confirm in writing which net metering arrangement your account would be on, since Kentucky terms are set per utility and one large Kentucky utility has already moved away from retail credit.
Rebuilding the arithmetic on Kentucky terms
Strike the federal residential credit from any quote showing it, and do not expect a state credit in its place, because Kentucky has none.
Rebuild from full retail net metering under the Kentucky Utilities arrangement, an eligible system size up to 45 kW under Senate Bill 100, and the electricity you stop buying at your actual rate.
Ask your county property valuation administrator how residential solar is treated for assessment at your address, since that is administered locally.
Then ask for the projection in writing with the production figure in kilowatt hours, the rate sourced from your own bill, fixed charges included and the escalation assumption stated.