Heat reduces output when production peaks
Solar panels lose efficiency as module temperature rises. Every manufacturer publishes a temperature coefficient for it, and it is a property of the technology rather than a defect.
A Kansas summer produces exactly the conditions where that matters: strong irradiance with high ambient temperature, so modules run well above the standard test conditions their rated output assumes.
A model that applies irradiance without a temperature correction will overstate summer output, which is when most annual generation happens and when credits accumulate.
Ask what module temperature the estimate assumed and what temperature coefficient it applied. An installer working Kansas seriously will answer without hesitating.
The rest of the estimate
Ask for the annual figure in kilowatt hours per year rather than only as a dollar saving, so production and rate assumptions can be checked separately.
Ask what data source produced it and whether it applies location-specific irradiance for your address rather than a regional average.
Ask what shading analysis was done and what it assumed about tree growth over the system life, since suburban Kansas City lots are frequently wooded.
Ask what soiling losses and annual degradation it applied. A model holding production flat across twenty-five years overstates the back half of the projection.
Then take that into the sizing decision
Once you trust the production figure, compare it against your last twelve months of consumption month by month rather than as annual totals.
Ask for the credit balance tracked through to March 31, when Kansas credits expire. A balance that rises in summer and returns toward zero by spring describes a well-sized system.
Kansas permits systems up to 150 percent of average annual consumption for full retail-rate credits, but permitted is not the same as sensible when surplus expires each March.
Ask for a smaller system modelled alongside the proposal, so you can compare returns rather than assume the larger one is better.
What belongs in the projection, and what does not
The 30 percent federal Residential Clean Energy Credit under Section 25D expired for property placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a cash or loan purchase in Shawnee receives no federal tax credit, and Kansas has no state solar tax credit.
Section 48E survives at 30 percent for third-party owners under leases and power purchase agreements, so ask what a provider claims and what reaches you in the rate.
What exists is retail-rate net metering credit under the 150 percent sizing rule, carried forward monthly and expiring March 31, with no solar-specific monthly charge.
Ask for a production estimate including temperature derating, soiling and degradation, and for the sizing checked against the March 31 expiry.